Author: Jit, Mark; Jombart, Thibaut; Nightingale, Emily; Endo, Akira; Abbott, Sam; Edmunds, William John
Title: Estimating number of cases and spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United Kingdom using critical care admissions, February to March 2020 Cord-id: hjnaufv0 Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: hjnaufv0
Snippet: An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from multiple surveillance databases to determine likely COVID-19 case numbers and growth in the United Kingdom from 16 February - 23 March 2020, after which a national lockdown occurred. We estimate that on 23 March, there were 102,000 (median; 95% credible interval 54,000 - 155,000) new cases and 320 (211 - 412) new critical care reports, with 464,000 (266,000 - 628,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
Document: An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from multiple surveillance databases to determine likely COVID-19 case numbers and growth in the United Kingdom from 16 February - 23 March 2020, after which a national lockdown occurred. We estimate that on 23 March, there were 102,000 (median; 95% credible interval 54,000 - 155,000) new cases and 320 (211 - 412) new critical care reports, with 464,000 (266,000 - 628,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.
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