A time irreversible model of nucleotide substitution for the SARS-CoV-2 evolution

Misawa, Kazuharu

SARS-CoV-2 is the cause of the worldwide epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Evolutionary studies of the virus genome will provide a predictor of the fate of COVID-19 in the near future. Recent studies of the virus genomes have shown that C to U substitutions are overrepresented in the genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2. Traditional time-reversible substitution models cannot be applied to the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Therefore, in this study, I propose a new time-irreversible model and a new method for estimating the nucleotide substitution rate of SARS-CoV-2. Computer simulations showed that that the new method gives good estimates. I applied the new method to estimate nucleotide substitution rates of SARS-CoV-2 sequences. The result suggests that the rate of C to U substitution of SARS-Cov-2 is ten times higher than other types of substitutions.