Analyzing the Impact of Demographic Variables on Spreading and Forecasting COVID-19

Sharif, Omar; Islam, Md Rafiqul; Hasan, Md Zobaer; Kabir, Muhammad Ashad; Hasan, Md Emran; AlQahtani, Salman A.; Xu, Guandong

The aim of this study is to analyse the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Bangladesh. This study investigates the impact of demographic variables on the spread of COVID-19 as well as tries to forecast the COVID-19 infected numbers. First of all, this study uses Fisher’s Exact test to investigate the association between the infected groups of COVID-19 and demographical variables. Second, it exploits the ANOVA test to examine significant difference in the mean infected number of COVID-19 cases across the population density, literacy rate, and regions/divisions in Bangladesh. Third, this research predicts the number of infected cases in the epidemic peak region of Bangladesh for the year 2021. As a result, from the Fisher’s Exact test, we find a very strong significant association between the population density groups and infected groups of COVID-19. And, from the ANOVA test, we observe a significant difference in the mean infected number of COVID-19 cases across the five different population density groups. Besides, the prediction model shows that the cumulative number of infected cases would be raised to around 500,000 in the most densely region of Bangladesh, Dhaka division.