Expected impact of COVID-19 outbreak in a major metropolitan area in Brazil

Tarcisio M Rocha Filho; Fabiana S. Ganem dos Santos; Victor B Gomes; Thiago A.H. Rocha; Julio H.R. Croda; Walter M Ramalho; Wildo N Araujo

The time evolution for the total number of cases, hospitalized individuals, and total fatalities, 112 for each age group, from the average or median values for the parameters in Table 1 , are shown 113 in Figs. 3, 4 and 5, respectively. In order to investigate the sensibility of our results with respect 114 to the estimation errors in different parameter used, we performed a Monte Carlo analysis with 115 100 000 simulations by sampling parameter values from an uniform distribution, in the interval 116 defined by the corresponding confidence interval. We considered at time zero 10 cases in the age 117 group of 10 to 39 years. In all that follows the number of cases are discounted from this initial 118 value. Results for the medians and inter-quartile intervals for the total number of cases, fatalities 119 and number of hospitalized individual are shown in Table 2 , for 30 and 60 days of time evolution. 120 The transmission probability P c obtained from the Monte Carlos study is well fitted by a 121 log-normal distribution with median of 0.148 and inter-quartile interval of (0.106, 0.247) (see 122 supporting information).