Author: Ruian Ke; Steven Sanche; Ethan Romero-Severson; Nicholas Hengartner
Title: Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US and its implications: even modest public health goals require comprehensive intervention Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: mbdah9ey_16
Snippet: Here, we argue that because death and the cause of death are usually recorded reliably and are 84 less affected by surveillance intensity changes or delay in confirmation than case counts, the time 85 series of death counts reflects the growth of an epidemic reliably, with a delay in onset 86 determined by the time between infection to death. Based on this idea, we designed a simple 87 methodology to disentangle the epidemic growth from confoundi.....
Document: Here, we argue that because death and the cause of death are usually recorded reliably and are 84 less affected by surveillance intensity changes or delay in confirmation than case counts, the time 85 series of death counts reflects the growth of an epidemic reliably, with a delay in onset 86 determined by the time between infection to death. Based on this idea, we designed a simple 87 methodology to disentangle the epidemic growth from confounding factors, such as 88 underreporting, delays in case confirmation and changes in surveillance intensity. We fit models 89 to both case incidence data and death count data collected from eight European countries and the 90 US in March 2020. We show that in most countries, the detection rate of infected individuals is 91 in general low, and COVID-19 spreads very fast in these countries. For such a fast-epidemic 92 growth, our results suggest that very strong and active control measures need to be implemented 93 as early as possible regardless of the public health goal (e.g. mitigation versus containment), and 94 that moderate control measures will not achieve measurable public health benefit. 95 96
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