Author: Tarcisio M Rocha Filho; Fabiana S. Ganem dos Santos; Victor B Gomes; Thiago A.H. Rocha; Julio H.R. Croda; Walter M Ramalho; Wildo N Araujo
Title: Expected impact of COVID-19 outbreak in a major metropolitan area in Brazil Document date: 2020_3_17
ID: kvfau8j0_18
Snippet: With the onset of an outbreak in a geographically delimited region, a behavioral change is propagation. Mathematically, this amounts to judiciously reduce the values of some components 106 of the contact matrix. We consequently restrict ourselves to the first 60 days of the possible 107 outbreak, beyond which results from simulations would not correspond any longer to a realistic 108 setting. Nevertheless, our approach lends itself easily to mode.....
Document: With the onset of an outbreak in a geographically delimited region, a behavioral change is propagation. Mathematically, this amounts to judiciously reduce the values of some components 106 of the contact matrix. We consequently restrict ourselves to the first 60 days of the possible 107 outbreak, beyond which results from simulations would not correspond any longer to a realistic 108 setting. Nevertheless, our approach lends itself easily to model specific interventions, as for 109 instance school closure, using the analogous of a school-term forcing in the contact matrix, 110 commonly used to study periodic oscillations in measles [21] .
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