Author: Jonathan A Michaels; Matt D Stevenson
Title: Explaining national differences in the mortality of Covid-19: individual patient simulation model to investigate the effects of testing policy and other factors on apparent mortality. Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: gkd1h8yi_16
Snippet: The first 19 doubling cycles of spread were considered, resulting in over 500,000 simulated cases. Apparent mortality for each testing scenario was estimated, based upon averaging 100 iterations to allow for Monte Carlo error, using a common seed to provide consistency across model runs. Model estimates under the different scenarios were compared to the apparent mortality rates based upon published national data, for those countries with the grea.....
Document: The first 19 doubling cycles of spread were considered, resulting in over 500,000 simulated cases. Apparent mortality for each testing scenario was estimated, based upon averaging 100 iterations to allow for Monte Carlo error, using a common seed to provide consistency across model runs. Model estimates under the different scenarios were compared to the apparent mortality rates based upon published national data, for those countries with the greatest number of reported cases of Covid-19. The structure of the model is shown diagrammatically in Figure 1 . . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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