Association Between Air Pollution in Lima and the High Incidence of COVID-19: Findings from a Post Hoc Analysis

Vasquez-Apestegui, Vanessa; Parras-Garrido, Enrique; Tapia, Vilma; Paz-Aparicio, Valeria M.; Rojas, Jhojan P.; Sánchez-Ccoyllo, Odón R.; Gonzales, Gustavo F.

BACKGROUND: Corona virus disease (COVID-19) originated in China in December 2019. Thereafter, a global logarithmic expansion of the cases has occurred. Some countries have a higher rate of infections despite of early implementation of quarantine. Air pollution could be related to the high susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 and the associated case-fatality rates (deaths/cases*100). Lima, Peru has the second highest incidence of COVID-19 in Latin America and it is also one of the cities with highest levels of air pollution in the Region. METHODS: This study investigated the association of the levels of PM(2.5) exposure in the previous years (2010–2016) in 24 districts of Lima with the cases, deaths and case-fatality rates of COVID-19. RESULTS: Until June 12, 2020, there were 6,308 deaths and 220,749 SARS-CoV-2 positive cases in Peru. In Lima, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in all metropolitan areas was 2,382. The case-fatality rate at the national level was 2.58% and 1.93% in Lima. Higher PM(2.5) levels are associated with higher number of cases and deaths of COVID-19. The case-fatality rate (Deaths/cases*100) did not increase with the increase in PM(2.5) levels. A higher number of food markets was associated with higher incidence and mortality of COVID-19 (p < 0.01 for both); these associations persisted when cases (r = 0.49; p < 0.01) and deaths (r = 0.58; p < 0.01) were adjusted by the population density. The association of PM(2.5) with cases of COVID-19 was maintained after controlling analysis by age, sex and number of food markers. CONCLUSIONS: the higher rates of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Lima is attributable, among others, to the increased PM(2.5) exposure in the previous years after adjusting for age, sex and number of food markets. Reduction of air pollution since a long term perspective, and social distancing are needed to prevent spreads of virus outbreak.