A new transmission route for the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus

Antoine Danchin; Tuen Wai Patrick Ng; Gabriel TURINICI

A word of caution concerning the present view: any model is but an imperfect view of reality and this model is no exception. In addition, the quality of the results given by the model depends directly on the quality of the data input, and it seems likely that some of the reported figures are subject to large error bars; in particular all simulations of this model were done before February 12 th when the accounting procedure for of number of cases was changed in China. Therefore, one should take the exact figures obtained with our simulations with a grain of salt. Yet, the simulation resulting from the model does show some important qualitative features that are now discussed. Specifically, the hypothesis that there exists a secondary route of transmission is meaningful and that two major types of virus effects are present is supported by the simulation data. This has the interesting consequence that it appears that, for the city of Wuhan, the quarantine seems to be effective-of course notwithstanding the need for further quarantine efforts to ensure that it remains under control-. However, since a reservoir is probably present, and the oro-fecal route may be an important propagation factor, the prevention of this transmission element is vital to avoid any resurgence. The first recommendation seems to be the enforcement of strict post-epidemic measures at the possible reservoir sites.