The effect of time-dependent infectiousness on epidemic dynamics

Landry, Nicholas

In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive numbers, epidemic dynamics, and intervention strategies for a model incorporating time-dependent infectiousness and a standard SIR model for both fully-mixed and category-mixed populations. We find that the reproductive number only depends on the total infectious exposure and the largest eigenvalue of the mixing matrix and that these two effects are independent of each other. When we compare our time-dependent mean-field model to the SIR model with equivalent rates, the epidemic peak is advanced and modifying the infection rate function has a strong effect on the time dynamics of the epidemic. We also observe behavior akin to a traveling wave as individuals transition through infectious states.