Evaluation of the potential incidence of COVID-19 and effectiveness of contention measures in Spain: a data-driven approach

Alberto Aleta; Yamir Moreno

In concluding, it is apparent from all the results obtained for the different scenarios that we have considered that the most cost-effective strategy would be the isolation or quarantine of detected infectious cases, as long as the efficacy of such measure is over 60%. Important for the current debate about the natural history of the disease, this policy would also work if there is a fraction of asymptomatic but infectious individuals in the population. Our results also show that from a practical point of view, a combination of all the analyzed contexts can have second order benefits. As already stressed, containment measures should not only be directed towards a full cutdown of the number of infected cases. Their efficacy is also given by other factors, such as delaying, even if only by a few days, the spreading of the disease. Such delays are always good for preparedness and to have more time for clinical research that can lead to new pharmacological treatments or vaccines. For instance, even if traffic restrictions are not effective on their own, they facilitate the control of the population and thus it would be easier to detect infected individuals and treat them. Similarly, self-protection measures and other social-distancing practices delay the spreading of the disease, freeing resources that would allow for a better management of the epidemic, in turn leading to an increase of the efficacy of individual isolation. Closing public places would, in practice, reduce the transmission, which again will lower the total number of infections and thus make them more manageable for the public health system. This also highlights the importance of having a coordinated response system, since simply adopting central measures like imposing mobility restrictions and closing public places is not effective in the middle-to-long term.