Explaining the Bomb-Like Dynamics of COVID-19 with Modeling and the Implications for Policy

Gary Lin; Alexandra T Strauss; Maxwell Pinz; Diego A Martinez; Katie K Tseng; Emily Schueller; Oliver Gatalo; Yupeng Yang; Simon A Levin; Eili Y Klein

The spread of COVID-19 has become a global pandemic, with confirmed cases of the disease growing exponentially on every inhabited continent [1] . Despite the rising numbers of cases and deaths, there are still important questions about the dynamics of the spread of the disease. Understanding the transmission of COVID-19 is essential to developing policy to contain the spread of the disease. The most important question in understanding the dynamics is how to explain the "bomb-like" dynamics of the disease; in most countries/states/cities, the number of confirmed cases remained low for weeks and then suddenly exploded, with the number of confirmed cases exponentially increasing in a matter of days ( Figure 1 ). These dynamics have been consistent across Europe and many states in the United States. They are also characteristic of the early infection period in China. The major question is whether these dynamics are due to missed cases of asymptomatic/mild disease or extremely rapid spread of the disease.