Explaining the Bomb-Like Dynamics of COVID-19 with Modeling and the Implications for Policy

Gary Lin; Alexandra T Strauss; Maxwell Pinz; Diego A Martinez; Katie K Tseng; Emily Schueller; Oliver Gatalo; Yupeng Yang; Simon A Levin; Eili Y Klein

Understanding the percentage of the population that is actually infected is critical for developing policies. As many countries have instituted extended shutdowns to try to contain the disease, there remain significant questions about the effectiveness of these policies in the short-and longterm. The most prominent countries to have contained or slowed the spread of disease include China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] . Through comprehensive strategies such as early detection, extensive testing, shelter-in-place orders, and isolation of infected individuals (among other measures), these countries have demonstrated that a combination of control measures can effectively slow transmission from affected individuals whether they are severely sick or asymptomatically infected. In contrast, isolated measures like broad travel restrictions or enforced quarantine have proven less effective, as the ability to achieve "zero risk" through these measures are virtually unattainable in most contexts. Moreover, the effectiveness of these strategies are even more questionable in light of research showing asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic carriers as important vectors for community transmission of COVID-19 [7] [8] [9] [10] .