Explaining the Bomb-Like Dynamics of COVID-19 with Modeling and the Implications for Policy

Gary Lin; Alexandra T Strauss; Maxwell Pinz; Diego A Martinez; Katie K Tseng; Emily Schueller; Oliver Gatalo; Yupeng Yang; Simon A Levin; Eili Y Klein

Emerging evidence from China [10] , Germany [17] , Taiwan [18] , and Iceland [19] suggests a larger fraction of the population may actually be asymptomatically or mildly infected than previously thought. Even the first report of genomic differences in the virus from Washington State in the United States suggested there may have been widespread community transmission as early as late January [20] , which presumably generated asymptomatic or mild enough cases that they were missed. Given that the spread of the disease coincided with peak influenza season, it is reasonable to assume that a mild COVID-19 infection could have been misdiagnosed. In addition, data on the disease's effect on children have been almost entirely lacking in the numbers of cases and hospitalizations reported [21] . Evidence suggests they are likely getting infected at the same rate as adults, albeit with lesser severity [22, 23] , implying that, at a minimum, at least 15% of the population in many countries may be asymptomatic when infected; the numbers are likely much higher.