Author: Feng Zhang; Jinmei Zhang; Menglan Cao; Yong Zhang; Cang Hui
Title: Exponential damping key to successful containment of COVID-19 outbreak Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: fqu54j4h_3
Snippet: The relatively limited infection, albeit excessively high when focused solely on the sheer number of infections, as well as the resultant mortality, have rather small effects on the demography of regional and global populations, unless a large fraction of the population eventually contracts the virus. In addition, the parameterisation of such models is also unreliable for a novel virus where its pathology and transmission pathways remain unclear .....
Document: The relatively limited infection, albeit excessively high when focused solely on the sheer number of infections, as well as the resultant mortality, have rather small effects on the demography of regional and global populations, unless a large fraction of the population eventually contracts the virus. In addition, the parameterisation of such models is also unreliable for a novel virus where its pathology and transmission pathways remain unclear with little data support. As such, we here propose a population ecology model with a time-varying infection rate to capture the transmission patterns of COVID-19. The All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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