Feasibility Study of Mitigation and Suppression Intervention Strategies for Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in London and Wuhan

Po Yang; Jun Qi; Shuhao Zhang; Xulong Wang; Gaoshan Bi; Yun Yang; Bin Sheng

In practical cases, it needs to estimate the defined parameters including 1 , 2 ,β, and 1 , 2 , 3 , b, where β is the product of the people exposed to each day by confirmed infected people (k) and the probability of transmission (b) when exposed (i.e., β= kb) and σ is the incubation rate which is the rate of latent individuals becoming symptomatic (average duration of incubation is 1/ 1 ). According to recent report [8] , the incubation period of COVID-19 was reported to be between 2 to 14 days, we chose the midpoint of 7 days. γ is the average rate of recovery or death in infected populations. Using epidemic data from [6] , we used SEMCR model to determine the probability of transmission (b) which was used to derive β and the probability of recovery or death (γ). The number of people who stay susceptible in each region was similar to that of its total resident population. Other transmission parameters were estimated with early prediction of Hubei cases in [6] on January 23 2020 using Monte Carlo simulation, as shown in the Table. 1