Case fatality rate of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in China

Qi, Rui; Ye, Chao; Qin, Xiang-rong; Yu, Xue-Jie

Abstract Background: A pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which have caused more than 80 thousand persons infected globally is still ongoing. This study aims to calculate its case fatality rate (CFR). Methods: The method, termed as converged CFR calculation, was based on the formula of dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases T days before, where T was an average time period from case confirmation to death. It was found that supposing a T, if it was smaller (bigger) than the true T, calculated CFRs would gradually increase (decrease) to infinitely near the true T with time went on. According to the law, the true T value could be determined by trends of daily CFRs calculated with different assumed T values (left of true T is decreasing, right is increasing). Then the CFR could be calculated. Results: CFR of COVID-19 in China except Hubei Province was 0.8% to 0.9%. So far, the CFR had accurately predicted the death numbers more than 3 weeks. CFR in Hubei of China was 5.4% by which the calculated death number corresponded with the reported number for 2 weeks. Conclusion: The method could be used for CFR calculating while pandemics are still ongoing. Dynamic monitoring of the daily CFRs trends could help outbreak-controller to have a clear vision in the timeliness of the case confirmation.