Facemask shortage and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak: Reflection on public health measures

Huailiang Wu; Jian Huang; Casper JP Zhang; Zonglin He; Wai-kit Ming

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https: //doi.org/10.1101 //doi.org/10. /2020 A cluster of COVID-19 cases was reported by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in late Dec 2019 1, and the peak of the epidemic is predicted to be between mid-to-late-February based on data from Wuhan while the epidemic is predicted to fade out within two months after the peak 16, 17 . The number of new cases is expected to decline after the epidemic peak, but the viral transmission is still possible and the need for facemask will not decrease immediately. Therefore, our analysis covered the period from 31 Dec 2019 to 30 Apr 2020 (121 days in total). To simulate the facemask availability in China, we used a mathematical model based on data and assumptions on the production, import, and need. We considered three scenarios in which the COVID-19 outbreak occurred in 1) Wuhan city (the epicenter); 2) Hubei province (the province/state where the epicenter is located); and 3) the whole of China (the entire country).