Author: Ruian Ke; Steven Sanche; Ethan Romero-Severson; Nicholas Hengartner
Title: Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US and its implications: even modest public health goals require comprehensive intervention Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: mbdah9ey_15
Snippet: Second, it sets the baseline for evaluation of effectiveness of intervention strategies. Third, it is 73 important for accurate estimation of the basic reproductive number, R0, which in turn is used for 74 many control measures, including evaluation of the vaccine/herd immunity threshold needed to 75 stop transmission 6,8 . However, a major challenge to the inference of the growth of COVID-19 is 76 that as a result of a fast-growing outbreak and .....
Document: Second, it sets the baseline for evaluation of effectiveness of intervention strategies. Third, it is 73 important for accurate estimation of the basic reproductive number, R0, which in turn is used for 74 many control measures, including evaluation of the vaccine/herd immunity threshold needed to 75 stop transmission 6,8 . However, a major challenge to the inference of the growth of COVID-19 is 76 that as a result of a fast-growing outbreak and a sizable infected population with no or mild-to-77 moderate symptoms 9,10 , case confirmation data is influenced by many factors in addition to the 78 true epidemic growth, including substantial underreporting 11 , i.e. low detection rate, changes in 79 surveillance intensity and delays in case confirmation. Simply fitting an exponential curve to 80 case confirmation data may lead to erroneous conclusions when confounding factors are not 81 taken into account or estimated from other sources of data. 82 83
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