Author: Ruian Ke; Steven Sanche; Ethan Romero-Severson; Nicholas Hengartner
Title: Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US and its implications: even modest public health goals require comprehensive intervention Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: mbdah9ey_72
Snippet: Third, the high epidemic growth rates suggest that moderate control efforts will not sufficiently 299 slow the virus spread to achieve measurable public health benefits. This may explain the 300 continuous growth of the outbreak in some countries despite measures, such as work and school 301 closures, were in place. We found that similarly high levels of efforts to reduce overall 302 transmission by 77-86% are needed to delay the epidemic peak an.....
Document: Third, the high epidemic growth rates suggest that moderate control efforts will not sufficiently 299 slow the virus spread to achieve measurable public health benefits. This may explain the 300 continuous growth of the outbreak in some countries despite measures, such as work and school 301 closures, were in place. We found that similarly high levels of efforts to reduce overall 302 transmission by 77-86% are needed to delay the epidemic peak and protect a large fraction of the 303 population from infection in 18 months (mitigation) or to reduce R0 below 1 (containment). 304 305
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