Expected impact of COVID-19 outbreak in a major metropolitan area in Brazil

Tarcisio M Rocha Filho; Fabiana S. Ganem dos Santos; Victor B Gomes; Thiago A.H. Rocha; Julio H.R. Croda; Walter M Ramalho; Wildo N Araujo

The present study simulates the impact of COVID-19 on the local health system by a 148 prediction of the number of hospitalized individuals, and consequently provides a tool for policy 149 decision makers to plan the needs of healthcare services in providing people living in an area that 150 is an international hub for the spread of COVID-19, mainly for other countries in South America. 151 The expected number of hospitalized individuals in the first 30 days of the outbreak should be 152 easily absorbed by the existing infrastructure in the metropolitan area of São Paulo, but increases 153 rapidly as the outbreak unfolds, and one expects a rapid saturation of the health settings, which 154 varies according to age. Our approach is therefore a relevant tool to provide authorities 155 responsible for the preparations for a possible outbreak the possibility to know how much time 156 they have at their disposal to prepare complementary health infrastructures. A more systematic 157 and detailed analysis in this directions is the subject of ongoing research.