Explaining national differences in the mortality of Covid-19: individual patient simulation model to investigate the effects of testing policy and other factors on apparent mortality.

Jonathan A Michaels; Matt D Stevenson

Under the base case assumptions, the apparent mortality estimated from confirmed cases and known deaths is 5.3% with the assumption of 50% community testing of symptomatic patients, and ranges from 10.5%, if testing is restricted to hospitalised patients, down to 0.4% with intensive contact tracing and community testing (Table 2 ). Figure 2 illustrates the one-way sensitivity analysis of the key parameters as specified in Table 1 (see Appendix 1 for the full results of sensitivity analysis). The rate of community testing and the ratio of hospitalised patients have the greatest effect and are considered in a two-way sensitivity analysis (see Table 2 ). The apparent fatality rates from Covid-19 in those countries with the greatest number of cases is shown in Figure 3 , with the modelled estimates different community testing regimes.