Author: Gary Lin; Alexandra T Strauss; Maxwell Pinz; Diego A Martinez; Katie K Tseng; Emily Schueller; Oliver Gatalo; Yupeng Yang; Simon A Levin; Eili Y Klein
Title: Explaining the Bomb-Like Dynamics of COVID-19 with Modeling and the Implications for Policy Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: ekw2oxw2_23
Snippet: We first fit the data assuming only that transmission from our unobserved group (β1) was lower than from the symptomatic observed group (β2), as mild/asymptomatic cases are likely to shed fewer viruses and thus be less transmissible. Thus, we constrained β1 and β2 to be between 0.1-0.5 and 0.5-0.9, respectively. We then refit the data by constraining our symptomatic fraction, θ, to be 50% or less. The main results are presented as the fitted.....
Document: We first fit the data assuming only that transmission from our unobserved group (β1) was lower than from the symptomatic observed group (β2), as mild/asymptomatic cases are likely to shed fewer viruses and thus be less transmissible. Thus, we constrained β1 and β2 to be between 0.1-0.5 and 0.5-0.9, respectively. We then refit the data by constraining our symptomatic fraction, θ, to be 50% or less. The main results are presented as the fitted values and the relative relationship to the known biology. As the process is stochastic, we were interested in the local maxima obtained from this procedure to guide understanding of the parameters and to assess the ability of the model to fit actual data with biologically plausible values.
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