Author: Gary Lin; Alexandra T Strauss; Maxwell Pinz; Diego A Martinez; Katie K Tseng; Emily Schueller; Oliver Gatalo; Yupeng Yang; Simon A Levin; Eili Y Klein
Title: Explaining the Bomb-Like Dynamics of COVID-19 with Modeling and the Implications for Policy Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: ekw2oxw2_3
Snippet: In this analysis, we aim to elucidate the parameters related to transmission, specifically the reproductive number. In epidemiology, the reproductive number of a disease describes the average number of additional infections each infected individual contributes within a totally susceptible population. At the outset of a disease, or time 0, the reproductive number is R0. If R0 is greater than 1 the disease will spread; if it is less than 1 the dise.....
Document: In this analysis, we aim to elucidate the parameters related to transmission, specifically the reproductive number. In epidemiology, the reproductive number of a disease describes the average number of additional infections each infected individual contributes within a totally susceptible population. At the outset of a disease, or time 0, the reproductive number is R0. If R0 is greater than 1 the disease will spread; if it is less than 1 the disease will die out. Estimates for the R0 of COVID-19 range widely. Initial estimates suggested it was quite high [11, 12] , but most models that have been highly cited in the literature have assumed an R0 in the 2-3 range [13] [14] [15] [16] . Capturing the magnitude of this value is critical to understanding how fast the disease will spread, how much of the population will be infected, and how quickly they will become infected.
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