Author: Ruian Ke; Steven Sanche; Ethan Romero-Severson; Nicholas Hengartner
Title: Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US and its implications: even modest public health goals require comprehensive intervention Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: mbdah9ey_61
Snippet: infected. If our goal is that the total fraction of infected individuals is less than 10% at the end of 234 18 months, the growth rate has to be less than 0·025/day (i.e. an extremely slow growth rate with 235 a doubling time of more than 28 days; Fig. 3B ). This suggests that moderate social distancing 236 efforts will be insufficient to delay the epidemic peak beyond 18 months. On the other hand, if 237 these targeted growth rates are achieved.....
Document: infected. If our goal is that the total fraction of infected individuals is less than 10% at the end of 234 18 months, the growth rate has to be less than 0·025/day (i.e. an extremely slow growth rate with 235 a doubling time of more than 28 days; Fig. 3B ). This suggests that moderate social distancing 236 efforts will be insufficient to delay the epidemic peak beyond 18 months. On the other hand, if 237 these targeted growth rates are achieved through very strong public health interventions, a little 238 more effort would lead to enormous public health benefit, i.e. the total infected fraction 239 decreases exponentially when r decrease beyond 0·023/day as shown in Fig. 3B . 240 241
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