Author: Eissler, M. K. R.
Title: Probability that an infection like Covid-19 stops without reaching herd immunity, calculated with a stochastic agent-based model. Cord-id: j4p3idhj Document date: 2021_1_2
ID: j4p3idhj
Snippet: The spread of an infection is simulated with a stochastic agent-based model. In a certain range of R0 values, the infection either rapidly comes to halt or a large proportion of the population is infected until herd immunity is achieved. Which of these two possibilities actually occurs is random. The probability of each case is determined quasi-empirically. This stochastic phenomenon may explain unexpected infection trajectories.
Document: The spread of an infection is simulated with a stochastic agent-based model. In a certain range of R0 values, the infection either rapidly comes to halt or a large proportion of the population is infected until herd immunity is achieved. Which of these two possibilities actually occurs is random. The probability of each case is determined quasi-empirically. This stochastic phenomenon may explain unexpected infection trajectories.
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