The impact of social distancing on COVID-19 infections and deaths

de Souza Melo, André; da Penha Sobral, Ana Iza Gomes; Marinho, Marcelo Luiz Monteiro; Duarte, Gisleia Benini; Vieira, Amanda Aires; Sobral, Marcos Felipe Falcão

BACKGROUND: To assess the impact of the social isolation index on the number of infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo (Brazil). METHODS: Daily isolation data, obtained through geolocation information by mobile phone, were evaluated together with the number of daily infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo. The study was conducted from February 26 to May 19, 2020. The data were modeled through the vector autoregression (VAR) model. RESULTS: The isolation index has an effect of approximately 5% in variation in the number of infections, and 7% in the number of deaths. The impulse response function (IRF) caused a drop of 0.15% in the number of new cases/day, and 0.17% in the number of deaths/day following a shock in the isolation index. For both cases, this effect occurred 1 day after the shock and stabilized after 10 periods. An increase of 1% in the isolation index led to a reduction of 6.91% in new cases and 6.90% in the number of deaths. The 30 cumulative day reduction reached 22.72% in terms of transmission and 35.39% for deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The social isolation index is related to deaths and infections from SARS-CoV-2. Although distancing measures are accompanied with impacts on the economy and the emergence of other morbidities, the benefits caused by the reduction in the speed of contagion are significant. The adoption of distancing measures has a substantial impact on the number of infected individuals and deaths by COVID-19.