Selected article for: "baseline scenario and isolation symptom onset delay"
Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts
  • Document date: 2020_2_11
    • ID: a8ig607t_36
    Snippet: Isolation and contact tracing decreased transmission, as shown by a decrease in the effective reproduction number (Figure 3b ). For the scenario where the basic reproduction number was 1.5, the median estimate rapidly fell below 1, which indicates that control is likely. For the higher transmission scenarios a higher level of contact tracing was needed to bring the median effective reproduction number below 1. Figure 4 : The percentage of outbrea.....
    Document: Isolation and contact tracing decreased transmission, as shown by a decrease in the effective reproduction number (Figure 3b ). For the scenario where the basic reproduction number was 1.5, the median estimate rapidly fell below 1, which indicates that control is likely. For the higher transmission scenarios a higher level of contact tracing was needed to bring the median effective reproduction number below 1. Figure 4 : The percentage of outbreaks controlled for the baseline scenario (black), and varied number of initial cases (A), time from onset to isolation (B), percentage of transmission before symptoms (C), and proportion of subclinical (asymptomatic) cases (D). The baseline scenario is R0 of 2.5, 20 initial cases, a short delay to isolation, 15% of transmission before symptom onset, and 0% subclinical infection. Results for R0 = 1.5 and 3.5 are given in the supplement. A simulated outbreak is defined as controlled if there are no cases between weeks 12 and 16 after the initial cases.

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