Selected article for: "early phase and small number"
Author: Sang Woo Park; David Champredon; Joshua S. Weitz; Jonathan Dushoff
Title: A practical generation interval-based approach to inferring the strength of epidemics from their speed
  • Document date: 2018_5_2
    • ID: jry46itn_13
    Snippet: The "intrinsic" interval can be distinguished from "realized" intervals, which can look "forward" or "backward" in time [8] (see also earlier work [39, 28] ). In particular, it is important to correct for biases that shorten the intrinsic interval when generation intervals are observed through contact tracing during an outbreak. In this model, disease growth is predicted to be approximately exponential in the early phase of an epidemic, because t.....
    Document: The "intrinsic" interval can be distinguished from "realized" intervals, which can look "forward" or "backward" in time [8] (see also earlier work [39, 28] ). In particular, it is important to correct for biases that shorten the intrinsic interval when generation intervals are observed through contact tracing during an outbreak. In this model, disease growth is predicted to be approximately exponential in the early phase of an epidemic, because the depletion in the effective number of susceptibles is relatively small. Thus, for the exponential phase, we write:

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