Author: Sang Woo Park; David Champredon; Joshua S. Weitz; Jonathan Dushoff
Title: A practical generation interval-based approach to inferring the strength of epidemics from their speed Document date: 2018_5_2
ID: jry46itn_2
Snippet: The reproductive number has remained a focal point for research because it provides information about how a disease spreads in a population, on the scale of disease generations. As it is a unitless quantity, it does not, however, contain information about time. Hence, another important quantity is the population-level rate of spread, r. The initial rate of spread can often be measured robustly early in an epidemic, since the number of incident ca.....
Document: The reproductive number has remained a focal point for research because it provides information about how a disease spreads in a population, on the scale of disease generations. As it is a unitless quantity, it does not, however, contain information about time. Hence, another important quantity is the population-level rate of spread, r. The initial rate of spread can often be measured robustly early in an epidemic, since the number of incident cases at time t is expected to follow i(t) ≈ i(0) exp(rt). The rate of growth can also be described using the "characteristic time" of exponential growth C = 1/r. This is closely related to, and simpler mathematically than, the more commonly used doubling time (given by T 2 = ln(2)C ≈ 0.69C).
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