Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_51
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021162 doi: medRxiv preprint needed to be traced and isolated to give a probability of control of 90% or more. This echoes other suggestions that highly effective contact tracing will be necessary to control outbreaks in other countries 17 . In scenarios where the delay from onset to isolation was larger, similar to the delays seen in the early phase of the outbreak in .....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021162 doi: medRxiv preprint needed to be traced and isolated to give a probability of control of 90% or more. This echoes other suggestions that highly effective contact tracing will be necessary to control outbreaks in other countries 17 . In scenarios where the delay from onset to isolation was larger, similar to the delays seen in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan, the same contact tracing success rate of 80% achieved less than 40% probability of containing an outbreak. Higher pre-symptomatic transmission decreases the probability that the outbreaks were controlled, under all reproduction numbers and isolation delay distributions tested.
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