Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_52
Snippet: Our model does not include other control measures that may decrease the reproduction number and therefore also increase the probability of achieving control of an outbreak. At the same time, it assumes that isolation of cases and contacts is completely effective, and that all symptomatic cases are eventually reported. Relaxing these assumptions would decrease the probability that control is achieved. We also make the assumption that contact is re.....
Document: Our model does not include other control measures that may decrease the reproduction number and therefore also increase the probability of achieving control of an outbreak. At the same time, it assumes that isolation of cases and contacts is completely effective, and that all symptomatic cases are eventually reported. Relaxing these assumptions would decrease the probability that control is achieved. We also make the assumption that contact is required for transmission between two individuals, whereas transmission via fomites may be possible. This would make effective contact tracing challenging, and good respiratory and hand hygiene would be critical to reduce this route of transmission, coupled with environmental decontamination in healthcare settings.
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