Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_55
Snippet: The model could be modified to include some transmission after isolation (such as in hospitals) which would decrease the probability of achieving control. In addition, we define an outbreak as controlled if it reaches extinction by 3 months, regardless of outbreak size or number of weekly cases. This definition may be narrowed where the goal is to keep the overall caseload of the outbreak low. This may be of concern to both local authorities for .....
Document: The model could be modified to include some transmission after isolation (such as in hospitals) which would decrease the probability of achieving control. In addition, we define an outbreak as controlled if it reaches extinction by 3 months, regardless of outbreak size or number of weekly cases. This definition may be narrowed where the goal is to keep the overall caseload of the outbreak low. This may be of concern to both local authorities for reducing the healthcare surges, and may provide a way to limit geographic spread.
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