Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_9
Snippet: The effectiveness of isolation and contact tracing methods hinges on two key epidemiological parameters: the number of secondary infections generated by each new infection and the proportion of transmission that occurs prior to symptom onset 5 . In addition, the probability of successful contact tracing and the delay between symptom onset and isolation are critical, since cases remain in the community where they can infect others until isolation .....
Document: The effectiveness of isolation and contact tracing methods hinges on two key epidemiological parameters: the number of secondary infections generated by each new infection and the proportion of transmission that occurs prior to symptom onset 5 . In addition, the probability of successful contact tracing and the delay between symptom onset and isolation are critical, since cases remain in the community where they can infect others until isolation 6, 14 . Transmission prior to symptom onset could only be prevented by tracing contacts of confirmed cases and testing (and quarantining) those contacts. Cases that do not seek care, potentially due to subclinical or asymptomatic transmission represent a further challenge to control.
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