Pattern of genomic variation in SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) suggests restricted nonrandom changes: Analysis using Shewhart control charts

MANDAL, SAURAV; ROYCHOWDHURY, TANMOY; BHATTACHARYA, ALOK

SARS-CoV-2 is a member of the Coronavirus family which recently originated from the Wuhan province of China and spread very rapidly through the world infecting more than 4 million people. In the past, other Coronaviruses have also been found to cause human infection, but not as widespread as COVID-19. Since Coronavirus sequences constantly change due to mutation and recombination, it is important to understand the pattern of changes and likely path the virus can take in the future. In this study, we have used the Shewhart control chart to identify and analyze hypervariable (hotspots) and hypovariable (coldspots) regions of the virus. Our analysis shows that SARS-CoV-2 has changed in a few regions of the genome. Analysis of SARS-CoV-1 and MERS sequences suggests that over time, mutations start accumulating in different regions and most likely SARS-CoV-2 may also follow a similar path. The results suggest a possible emergence of modified viruses over some time. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12038-020-00131-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.