Exponential phase of covid19 expansion is not driven by climate at global scale

Marco Tulio Pacheco Coelho; Joao Fabricio Mota Rodrigues; Anderson Matos Medina; Paulo Scalco; Levi Carina Terribile; Bruno Vilela; Jose Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho; Ricardo Dobrovolski

When discussing and modelling the effect of climate on SARS CoV-2 it is important to remember that modern human society is a complex system composed of strongly connected societies that are all susceptible to rare events. It is also critical to consider the negative correlations between climate and local or regional socioeconomic conditions (i.e., inadequate sanitary conditions and poor nutritional conditions) that could easily counteract any potential climatic effect at local scales, such as lower survival rates of viruses exposed to high temperatures and high UV irradiation (Duan et al. 2003 , Wang et al. 2020 . Tropical regions will experience mild climate conditions in a couple of months. Thus, regardless of the influence of local environmental conditions, tropical countries could still expect high contagious rates. Finally, climatic suitability models might be ephemeral for very mathematized modelling fields of science such as epidemiology and virology that developed over time very realistic models that enables the possibility of learning with parameters of similar viruses (i.e. SARS) that can definitely help and instruct decision makers to take actions before it is too late.