Modeling COVID19 mortality in the US: Community context and mobility matter

McGough, S. F.; Gan, R. W.; Tibshirani, R.; Meyer, A.-M.

The United States has become an epicenter for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, communities have been unequally affected and evidence is growing that social determinants of health may be exacerbating the pandemic. Furthermore, the impact and timing of social distancing at the community level have yet to be fully explored. We investigated the relative associations between COVID-19 mortality and social distancing, sociodemographic makeup, economic vulnerabilities, and comorbidities in 24 counties surrounding 7 major metropolitan areas in the US using a flexible and robust time series modeling approach. We found that counties with poorer health and less wealth were associated with higher daily mortality rates compared to counties with fewer economic vulnerabilities and fewer pre-existing health conditions. Declines in mobility were associated with up to 15% lower mortality rates relative to pre-social distancing levels of mobility, but effects were lagged between 25-30 days. While we cannot estimate causal impact, this study provides insight into the association of social distancing on community mortality while accounting for key community factors. For full transparency and reproducibility, we provide all data and code used in this study.