The Epidemiologic Transition Theory and Evidence for Cancer Transitions in the US, Select European Nations, and Japan

Gersten, O.; Barbieri, M.

Despite cancer being a leading cause of death worldwide, scant research has been carried out on the existence of 'cancer transitions,' the idea that as nations develop, they move from a situation where infectious related cancers are prominent, to one where non-infectious related cancers dominate. We use annual cause-of-death data to produce death rates for common types of cancer in select high-income countries. We find that cancer mortality patterns parallel the epidemiologic transition, which states that as countries advance, they move from a regime where infectious diseases are most common to one where non-infectious disease are most common. An implication is that the epidemiologic transition theory as originally formulated continues to be relevant despite some researchers arguing that we need additional stages beyond the original three.