Selected article for: "incubation period and simple model"
Author: Yoshiyuki Sugishita; Junko Kurita; Tamie Sugawara; Yasushi Ohkusa
Title: Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan
  • Document date: 2020_4_6
    • ID: 86ovj7xg_7
    Snippet: We applied a simple SIR model [2, 3, 4] with three age classes: children 19 years old or younger, adults 20-59 years old, and elderly people 60 years old or older to the published data from Toko Metropolitan Government [5] . We assumed some protection of children [6] : 40% of children were protected t infection [4] . The incubation period was assumed to be equal for all people of the three age classes and following the empirical distribution infe.....
    Document: We applied a simple SIR model [2, 3, 4] with three age classes: children 19 years old or younger, adults 20-59 years old, and elderly people 60 years old or older to the published data from Toko Metropolitan Government [5] . We assumed some protection of children [6] : 40% of children were protected t infection [4] . The incubation period was assumed to be equal for all people of the three age classes and following the empirical distribution inferred for the outbreak in Japan.

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