A Rapid Review of the Asymptomatic Proportion of PCR-Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Community Settings

Beale, S.; Hayward, A.; Shallcross, L.; Aldridge, R. W.; Fragaszy, E.

Background: Up to 80% of active SARS-CoV-2 infections are proposed to be asymptomatic based on cross-sectional studies. However, accurate estimates of the asymptomatic proportion require systematic detection and follow-up to differentiate between truly asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases. We conducted a rapid review and meta-analysis of current evidence regarding the asymptomatic proportion of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections based on methodologically-appropriate studies in community settings. Methods: We searched Medline and EMBASE for peer-reviewed articles, and BioRxiv and MedRxiv for pre-prints published prior to 05/05/2020. We included studies based in community settings that involved systematic PCR testing on participants and follow-up symptom monitoring regardless of symptom status. We extracted data on study characteristics, frequencies of PCR-confirmed infections by symptom status, and (if available) cycle threshold values and/or duration of viral shedding by symptom status. We computed estimates of the asymptomatic proportion and 95% confidence intervals for each study and overall using random effect meta-analysis. Findings: We screened 270 studies and included 6. The pooled estimate for the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 11% (95% CI 4%-18%). Estimates of baseline viral load appeared to be similar for asymptomatic and symptomatic cases based on available data in three studies, though detailed reporting of cycle threshold values and natural history of viral shedding by symptom status was limited. Interpretation: The asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections is relatively low when estimated from methodologically-appropriate studies. Further investigation into the degree and duration of infectiousness for asymptomatic infections is warranted. Funding: Medical Research Council