Forecasting of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Different Countries with ARIMA Models

Tania Dehesh; H.A. Mardani-Fard; Paria Dehesh

3 Background A novel Virus belongs to Corona virus's family that has been transmitter from animal to human and was recognized in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. This can cause serious illness and death (1). It has since been identified as a zoonotic coronavirus, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and was named 2019-nCoV (2) . A total number of 4515 cases including 106 deaths were confirmed on 27 th of January 2020 (3) . A local seafood market in Wuhan was visited by many cases in the initial research, and it is indicated that a commonsource zoonotic exposure may cause this new illness (4) The prevalence scope of this disease is unclear, because at present the prevalence of this disease is so dynamic(1). There is obvious variation among countries in epidemiological surveillance and detection capacity for suspected cases. (5) Several cases of COVID-19 infections were also reported outside China, in other Asian countries, the United States, France, Australia, and Canada. In this situation when the illness does not have any specific treatment, the prevention of disease and preparation in healthcare services is very important .