Predictors of Intensive Care Unit Admission or Death in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pneumonia in Istanbul, Turkey.

Surme, Serkan; Buyukyazgan, Ahmet; Bayramlar, Osman Faruk; Cinar, Ayse Kurt; Copur, Betul; Zerdali, Esra; Tuncer, Gulsah; Balli, Hatice; Nakir, Inci Yilmaz; Yazla, Meltem; Kurekci, Yesim; Pehlivanoglu, Filiz; Sengoz, Gonul

We aimed to determine the predictors of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death in patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. This retrospective and single-center study includes patients aged ≥18 years who were diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia (laboratory and radiologically confirmed) between March 9 and April 8, 2020. Our composite endpoint was ICU admission or in-hospital death. To evaluate the factors in the composite endpoint, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. A total of 336 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were recorded. The median age was 54 years [interquartile range (IQR): 21] and 187 (55.7%) were male. Fifty-one (15.2%) patients were admitted to the ICU. In-hospital death occurred in 33 (9.8%) patients. In univariate analysis, 17 parameters were associated with the composite endpoint and procalcitonin had the highest ODDs ratio (OR=36.568 CI=5.145-259.915). Our results revealed that body temperature (OR=1.489 CI=1.023-2.167, p=0.037), peripheral capillary oxygen saturation (SpO2) (OR=0.835 CI=0.773-0.901, p<0.001), and consolidation (>25%) in chest computed tomography (OR=3.170 CI=1.218-8.252, p=0.018) at admission were independent predictors. As a result, increased body temperature, decreased SpO2, a high level of procalcitonin, and degree of consolidation in chest computed tomography may predict a poor prognosis and have utility in the management of patients.