Author: Ruian Ke; Steven Sanche; Ethan Romero-Severson; Nicholas Hengartner
Title: Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US and its implications: even modest public health goals require comprehensive intervention Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: mbdah9ey_68
Snippet: R0 is estimated to be 7·1 (95% CI: 5·1 and 9·6) 6 . Although shorter serial intervals are reported in 278 the literature 20,21 , it was noted that this is likely due to strong intervention efforts 19,20 . Given the 279 potentially long infectious period in individuals with either mild or severe symptoms 22 , the mean 280 serial interval during early outbreak in the absence of strong intervention (a likely scenario in 281 most countries examine.....
Document: R0 is estimated to be 7·1 (95% CI: 5·1 and 9·6) 6 . Although shorter serial intervals are reported in 278 the literature 20,21 , it was noted that this is likely due to strong intervention efforts 19,20 . Given the 279 potentially long infectious period in individuals with either mild or severe symptoms 22 , the mean 280 serial interval during early outbreak in the absence of strong intervention (a likely scenario in 281 most countries examined here) is unlikely less than 6 days. Overall, our results imply that a large 282 fraction of the population needs to be vaccinated if an effective vaccine is to prevent the spread 283 of the virus. In addition, if the virus is allowed to spread through the population, a large fraction 284 of the population (>74%) will be infected even if the growth curve is flattened by control efforts. 285 286
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