Selected article for: "care ICU bed and critical care"
Author: Jacob Deasy; Emma Rocheteau; Katharina Kohler; Daniel J. Stubbs; Peitro Barbiero; Pietro Liò; Ari Ercole
Title: Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England
  • Document date: 2020_3_23
    • ID: i37ygb2z_22
    Snippet: Building on this theme, we forecast the percentage of COVID-19 bed requirements in isolation, figures which do not reflect competing ICU burden. Since UK bed occupancy is typically greater than 80% and may frequently exceed 100% [7] , clearly not all beds can simply be re-allocated for COVID-19 patients. This may be especially true for specialist ICUs (e.g. neuroscience or cardiac) which may not be able to entirely reconfigure, or high-dependency.....
    Document: Building on this theme, we forecast the percentage of COVID-19 bed requirements in isolation, figures which do not reflect competing ICU burden. Since UK bed occupancy is typically greater than 80% and may frequently exceed 100% [7] , clearly not all beds can simply be re-allocated for COVID-19 patients. This may be especially true for specialist ICUs (e.g. neuroscience or cardiac) which may not be able to entirely reconfigure, or high-dependency beds which may not be able to provide mechanical ventilation routinely. Furthermore, we assumed that all adult critical care bed spaces can be used for mechanically ventilated ICU patients, which operationally may not be possible for a variety of reasons including equipment and sta↵ availability. Thus, the precise percentage of additional COVID-19 patients that will actually exhaust routine capacity will vary from unit to unit, particularly in ICUs with a substantial postoperative elective surgical workload. Finally, front-line clinicians reviewing our results in these early days of the pandemic will highlight the disconnect between our estimated 'confirmed' cases and the substantial operational workload that is being created by treating all suspicious cases of respiratory failure as COVID-19 until proven otherwise.

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