Author: Charles C Branas; Andrew Rundle; Sen Pei; Wan Yang; Brendan G Carr; Sarah Sims; Alexis Zebrowski; Ronan Doorley; Neil Schluger; James W Quinn; Jeffrey Shaman
Title: Flattening the curve before it flattens us: hospital critical care capacity limits and mortality from novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) cases in US counties Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: b23301ac_23
Snippet: While large urban areas generally had the largest capacity to generate additional critical care beds under our surge capacity models, these same urban counties currently, or in the near future, are predicted to have the largest numbers of COVID-19 cases. A major concern that then arises is whether the critical care surge capacity in these counties is sufficient to care for the projected numbers of COVID-19 cases that will continue to mount. As a .....
Document: While large urban areas generally had the largest capacity to generate additional critical care beds under our surge capacity models, these same urban counties currently, or in the near future, are predicted to have the largest numbers of COVID-19 cases. A major concern that then arises is whether the critical care surge capacity in these counties is sufficient to care for the projected numbers of COVID-19 cases that will continue to mount. As a matching concern, the relocation or travel of urban residents with undetected COVID-19 infection to non-urban areas that appear to be relatively unaffected may overwhelm the relatively limited critical care capacity in otherwise isolated non-urban regions. A potential example of this in the current dataset is the Colorado cluster that includes major winter vacation resorts that may have had visitors in from major cities in the US and internationally soon before public notification of the current COVID-19 crisis.
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