Association Between Preparedness and Response Measures and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality

Lee, C. T.; Buissonniere, M.; McClelland, A.; Frieden, T. R.

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most disruptive global health threat in a century. We analyzed publicly available data on preparedness capacity, COVID-19 incidence and mortality, governance, and testing. Although other analyses have suggested that preparedness assessments do not correlate with effective pandemic response, we found that testing rates correlate with both COVID-19 incidence and mortality and strongly correlated with country preparedness capacity as measured by the Joint External Evaluation (JEE). There is a statistically significant association between preparedness capacities and COVID-19 case incidence and an independent association between governance and COVID-19 case and mortality rates. Legislation, surveillance, and risk communication capacities were associated with lower COVID-19 case incidence and mortality. Preparedness and governance are independently associated with COVID-19 pandemic severity. Preparedness capacities are not sufficient - capacity and governance are both critical to pandemic control. Countries must improve public health systems and implement strong government leadership.