Forecasting the Worldwide Spread of COVID-19 based on Logistic Model and SEIR Model

Xiang Zhou; Na Hong; Yingying Ma; Jie He; Huizhen Jiang; Chun Liu; Guangliang Shan; Longxiang Su; Weiguo Zhu; Yun Long

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044289 doi: medRxiv preprint All countries reduced social contact among its people, although by implementing multiple different control measures, we give a preliminary average estimation for the contact rate and quarantined proportions as model parameters. In addition, as the quarantine and control measures take effect after a period of increasing cases, it has typically surged into a considerable number; therefore, the initial dates of 8 observed countries used in the adjusted model were different, and they were defined as the dates when the countries' governments implemented strict interventions and control measures for a large-scale population. We assumed that the contact rate decreased since the government implemented these strict control measures. In terms of our previous study and related studies 8 , the contact rate was below 8 after a large-scale intervention was initiated.