Author: Chloe N Schooling; Norbert Gyenge; Visakan Kadirkamanathan; James J.P. Alix
Title: Forecasting Hospital Staff Availability During The COVID-19 Epidemic Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: e1iek3jx_14
Snippet: As staff progress through the rota the model uses random number generation in line with the infection risk each day, in order to determine if, and when, each staff member becomes infected. Within the model the incubation time between exposure and infection is set to a median of 5 days with a range of incubation times arrived through fitting to data from Lauer et al 11 (figure 1). After symptom onset, 80% of staff have an illness that allows them .....
Document: As staff progress through the rota the model uses random number generation in line with the infection risk each day, in order to determine if, and when, each staff member becomes infected. Within the model the incubation time between exposure and infection is set to a median of 5 days with a range of incubation times arrived through fitting to data from Lauer et al 11 (figure 1). After symptom onset, 80% of staff have an illness that allows them to gradually return to work after 14 days. 97% of the workforce is back after 6 weeks postsymptom onset and they are gradually re-introduced. 3% do not return to work within the time period of the analysis. The model is run as a Monte Carlo simulation through repeated sampling and the resulting mean and 95% confidence intervals for staff levels are plotted.
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