Author: Xiang Zhou; Na Hong; Yingying Ma; Jie He; Huizhen Jiang; Chun Liu; Guangliang Shan; Longxiang Su; Weiguo Zhu; Yun Long
Title: Forecasting the Worldwide Spread of COVID-19 based on Logistic Model and SEIR Model Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: 52zjm9jt_17
Snippet: In Scenario 2, we only used the basic SEIR model, and the population is divided into four classes: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I) and removed (R). The essence of the SEIR model is a system of ordinary differential equations over time. The disease trend it predicts only depends on parameters and the start time. The model is measured by the equation below, and the entire population was initially susceptible, with the assumption that a.....
Document: In Scenario 2, we only used the basic SEIR model, and the population is divided into four classes: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I) and removed (R). The essence of the SEIR model is a system of ordinary differential equations over time. The disease trend it predicts only depends on parameters and the start time. The model is measured by the equation below, and the entire population was initially susceptible, with the assumption that all people have no immunity against COVID-19. The initial number of cases was collected from the reported data. Because reliable data are still scarce during the early days of a new outbreak, the initial date of the model was set as the day since the 100th confirmed case was reached for each country, which indicates different initial dates of the 8 observed countries.
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