Forecasting the Worldwide Spread of COVID-19 based on Logistic Model and SEIR Model

Xiang Zhou; Na Hong; Yingying Ma; Jie He; Huizhen Jiang; Chun Liu; Guangliang Shan; Longxiang Su; Weiguo Zhu; Yun Long

The results of spreading potentials show that the R 0 of COVID-19 is high, which is similar to that of SARS viruses (R 0 values between 2.0 and 5.0 22 ), higher influenza viruses H1N1 (R 0 values between 1.2 and 3.7 23 ), and Ebola viruses (R 0 values between 1.34 and 3.65 24 ). COVID-19 is a highly contagious human-to-human transmission disease. The R 0 is expected to decrease substantially compared to values at the early stage after governments implement control measures; however, regardless of the kind of policy each country executes, each policy has its limitations in defending against COVID-19, and sustained transmission chains will occur until there is a vaccine or the until the virus disappears due to seasonal or population immunity 25 From the view of mathematical models, the SEIR model is designed for infectious disease estimation; however, the logistic growth model is designed to fit the development of the curves.